Bird, P., and C. Kreemer [2015a] Revised tectonic forecast of global shallow seismicity based on version 2.1 of the Global Strain Rate Map, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am, 105(1), 152-166 plus electronic supplements, doi: 10.1785/0120140129.

See also:

Bird, P., and C. Kreemer [2015b] Erratum to …, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am, 105(3), 1823-1824, doi: 10.1785/0120150068.

Abstract.  A major upgrade of the Global Strain Rate Map, version 2.1, uses far more geodetic data, systematic data processing, more modeled plates and plate boundaries, an improved algorithm, and a finer spatial grid than version 1 (Kreemer et al., 2014). We convert this model to an indefinite-term tectonic forecast of shallow seismicity on a fine global grid, using the assumptions of Bird et al. (2010) and similar algorithms. One new feature is smoothing of model strain rates, and thus forecast seismicity, around offshore plate boundaries where strain rates are not controlled by local geodetic data. Another is incorporation of velocity-dependent seismic coupling in subduction zones and continental convergent boundaries (Bird et al., 2009). The seismicity model is constructed in six progressively more complex versions. Only catalog years 1977–2004 are used for calibration, leaving years 2005–2012 available for retrospective tests. Tests of forecast success that are independent of total earthquake rate and that use no declustering show success comparable to that of one mature, optimized smoothed-seismicity algorithm.

Necessary data files and software for computing these forecasts:

SHIFT-GSRM2x = Program (Fortran 90 source &Windows executable) to produce any forecast (a~f) in Bird’s .GRD format.

SHIFT-GSRM2_for_CSEP = Program (Fortran 90 source & Windows executable) to produce the preferred forecast in CSEP’s .XML format.

Sphere.f90 = Module of Fortran 90 spherical-geometry routines needed to compile the two programs above.

SHIFT-GSRM2f_parameters.dat = input file for SHIFT-GSRM_for_CSEP, listing other input and output files (and forecast dates).

GSRM_average_strain_v2.1.txt = Global Strain Rate Map version 2.1 average strain rates in cells.

GCMT_shallow_5p767_1977-2013.eqc = GCMT catalog for the calibration years 1977-2013, in Peter Bird’s .EQC format.

PB2002_steps.dat = Plate-boundary model PB2002 of Bird [2003].

PB2002_tectonic_zones.grd = Tectonic zone map from Kagan et al. [2010] in Bird’s .GRD format.

underwater.grd = global grid marking cells which are underwater, at 0.20 × 0.25-degree resolution (from ETOPO5).

NeoKineMap = Program (Fortran 90 source & Windows executable) for plotting forecasts (requires Adobe Illustrator to display output).

Kagan_2009_GJI_I_scores = Program (Fortran 90 source & Windows executable) to compute Information scores I₀ & I₁.

pseudoCSEP = Program (Fortran 90 source & Windows executable) to compute various other scores of forecasts.