71. Rong, Y., P. Bird, and D. D. Jackson [2016] Earthquake
potential and magnitude limits inferred from a geodetic strain-rate model of
southern Europe, *Geophys**. J. Int., 205*(1), 509-522, doi:
10.1093/gji/ggw018.

**Abstract**. The project
Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE), completed in 2013, presents
significant improvements over previous regional seismic hazard modeling
efforts. The Global Strain Rate Map v2.1, sponsored by the Global Earthquake
Model Foundation and built on a large set of self-consistent geodetic GPS
velocities, was released in 2014. To check the SHARE seismic source models that
were based mainly on historical earthquakes and active fault data, we first
evaluate the SHARE historical earthquake catalogues and demonstrate that the
earthquake magnitudes are acceptable. Then, we construct an earthquake
potential model using the Global Strain Rate Map data. SHARE models provided
parameters from which magnitude–frequency distributions can be specified for
each of 437 seismic source zones covering most of Europe. Because we are
interested in proposed magnitude limits, and the original zones had
insufficient data for accurate estimates, we combine zones into five groups
according to SHARE’s estimates of maximum magnitude. Using the strain rates, we
calculate tectonic moment rates for each group. Next, we infer seismicity rates
from the tectonic moment rates and compare them with historical and SHARE
seismicity rates. For two of the groups, the tectonic moment rates are higher than
the seismic moment rates of the SHARE models. Consequently, the rates of large
earthquakes forecast by the SHARE models are lower than those inferred from
tectonic moment rate. In fact, the SHARE models forecast higher seismicity
rates than the historical rates, which indicate that the authors of SHARE were
aware of the potentially higher seismic activities in the zones. For one group,
the tectonic moment rate is lower than the seismic moment rates forecast by the
SHARE models. As a result, the rates of large earthquakes in that group
forecast by the SHARE model are higher than those inferred from tectonic moment
rate, but lower than what the historical data show. For the other two groups,
the seismicity rates from tectonic moment rate, historical data and SHARE
models are consistent. For four groups, the maximum magnitudes used by SHARE
are fairly consistent with the probable maximum magnitudes inferred from
tectonic strain rates. This study demonstrates that: (1) the strain-rate data
are useful for constraining seismicity rates and magnitude limits; and (2)
SHARE seismic source models and historical earthquake catalogues are
satisfactory.